Pandemic Flu: It's When, Not If

Report on Pandemic Flu Summit, Mar. 29-30
 

2 May 2007

“It’s a matter of when, not if,” reported Stew Gaylord on Pandemic Flu expectations to Lutheran Disaster Response-Team Florida at their spring meeting April 17. “And the when is sometime in the next two years.”

Gaylord was reporting on the information presented at the ESF 15 Pandemic Flu Summit that was held in Orlando March 29-30, sponsored by the Florida Department of Health and Volunteer Florida.  Attending for Lutheran Disaster Response-Team Florida, Stew Gaylord and Irma Rojas were among 160 representatives from Emergency Support Functions (ESF) and government agencies across Florida.

Fifteen speakers addressed the group and gave facts about the expected pandemic, including Dr. Bill Tynan, medical director for Public Health Preparedness, Chris Floyd of the American Red Cross, and Patrick Gardner of the Florida Department of Health.

"Although the topic of this summit was far from enjoyable, what will happen if we are not prepared is even worse," said Gaylord.

THE FACTS

The facts shared at the summit, which Gaylord reported to LDR-Team Florida in April, are:

1. A Pandemic is anticipated to last 12-18 months and will come in 3-5 waves. It is anticipated to start within the next 2 years.

2. Nationally, it is estimated that 1/3 of the population will get sick. Significant deaths are likely to occur. This will happen over a 12-18 month period. At any point in time, we can expect that about 20% of our population will be ill.

3. For example, in a community the size of Winter Haven: 260,000 residents will likely have 39,000 sick at any point of time, with about 65,000 out of work who are either sick, aiding the sick, self quarantining, or have lost jobs because of the pandemic (restaurant, church, school, attractions). It is estimated that in a community of 260,000 about 1,750 may die.  If there is a larger population of those with chronic illnesses or heavy smokers, this number could be much higher.

4. All places where groups of people congregate will likely be closed to prevent further spread of the infection: restaurants, churches, schools, entertainment attractions, etc.

5. Those with vibrant, strong immune systems are those with the greatest risk of not surviving this flu. In past pandemics those will less strong immune systems survived and ended up taking care of the rest—that usually was the elderly. The most affected age group is expected to be 20-40 years of age. This is why after the pandemic of 1918-1920, so many large orphanages came into existence.

6. Regarding business issues in this type of disaster, it will not be like the damage from a hurricane.  Rather the infrastructure is expected to be severely restricted — transportation, utilities, fuel, etc. At least 1/3 of the workforce is expected to be unavailable (those not sick may be taking care of those that are and many will self-quarantine). Essential workers will be equally affected. Most businesses will be affected — big companies rely on small companies for product, as do small companies rely on big companies.

7. The state of Florida does not believe it will be dealing with a shortage of foodstuffs, but there will likely be a shortage of distribution.

8. Many people will be forced to learn to cook. Restaurants will likely be closed (those folks will be out of work). Rolling blackouts may make the microwave unusable, etc. Groceries will be either out of inventory or not providing any foods not already canned or preserved.

9. Community services are expected to be impeded. Garbage may not be picked up. Health Care may be closed. Schools and Churches are likely to be closed. No gatherings of groups are likely to be allowed. Hospitals will probably be full, which could make new patient admissions questionable.

10. What we consider necessities will likely be limited. Groceries, drug stores, businesses, fuel availability, even the ability to travel may be restricted. Rolling blackouts are probable.  Water supply may be limited or contaminated. Telecommunications and internet are likely to be overloaded and become useless for periods of time. People forced to stay home with no power will not have TV, video games (kids home from school will not have games, nor be allowed outside to play with others) or other entertainments. If power and gas is affected, air conditioning and heat will become important factors. In a pandemic, seriously ill people will need clean bedding and clothes if they hope to survive and get better — this means electric needed for washing machines, because hand washing germ-laden bedding may increase the chances of others becoming ill.  Drying can be done outside.  A large supply of soaps and bleach will need to be on hand.

11. For anti-viral medication to have any effect (not cure, but possible easing), they must be administered within 1-2 days after symptoms show, or they are totally ineffective. There is no vaccine or anything to help prevent the flu. The best course of action is to do all you can to remain healthy.

12. Masks will likely be worn in public. Cloth masks or regular paper masks (dust masks — non air purifying) will help slow down transmission, particularly if both parties are wearing them. N95 or better masks (air purifying) will prevent spreading and inhaling the virus. However paper masks and filters are only good for 4 hours, then they become too damp to remain effective.

13. One concern raised at the summit is how to address disasters in the middle of a pandemic, since it is likely that it will be happening during hurricane season, for example.

PANDEMIC PREPARATION & RESPONSE

Response plans and preparation needs that were featured at the Pandemic Flu Summit, according to Gaylord,  included:

14. It is key for each family to have their own disaster plan, supplies and method for “self quarantining.” When it comes down to it, it will be neighborhood block captains that will ensure how neighborhood residents survive — that will only work if each family has enough supplies to take care of their own — recommend 3-4 weeks of non-perishable foods and sufficient water or means of purifying water (boiling, filter, etc.).

15. Florida is considering a special adaptation for the unemployment compensation program to cover those that are quarantined and cannot go to work.

16. Red Cross—Capital Area Chapter (Leon Co., Tallahassee) has come up with a plan forming Team and Block Captains to address and keep in contact with residents in their neighborhood. Each Block Captain gets a “preparedness kit” containing latex and non-latex gloves, N95 masks, hand sanitizer and “Self-Isolation” ribbons for families choosing to mark their home so no one will come in contact with them. More info on this program can be found at: www.cacarc.org.

17. Areas churches can really help: Contact all medically trained people in your church, retired or working and find out if they are willing to help and if they are willing to train and keep that information available. (It was brought up that it would be great if, before we have need of them, the state can do a check with these people to verify credentials and issue “temporary” disaster licenses to those who do not have Florida medical licenses). These folks can help train members of the congregation (and community) on how to care for those family members, friends and neighbors who may need “nursing” care. Teaching how to treat, clean, bathe, feed and address other needs of a patient without increasing your chances of becoming ill. Area churches can have a congregational inventory so phone chains can keep in touch with all members. Hopefully the church has a member database that includes those with handicaps, special needs, other contact numbers for relatives, etc. and can help keep in touch with these folks. Keep in mind, some of the most valuable volunteers will not be available at this time because they will be sick themselves, aiding those close to them that are ill, have been called to work extra because of others not being able to come to work, or (because they do volunteer) have other commitments helping or working that keep them from helping with your needs.

18. Those churches and organizations that have Early Response Teams, Disaster Teams or other groups of dedicated volunteers need to be cross-trained.

19. Those with Ham radio experience may be called if communication becomes inconsistent. Churches would find it helpful to have at least 1 or 2 ham operators (with battery back up) in each church and their church’s regional and/or state office should have operators so they could keep in touch in an emergency. (Not a bad idea for hurricanes either).

20. There will be a great need for spiritual care—this, in most cases, will have to be done by phone, radio or other means. Churches should look into alternative worship possibilities – web-based services, conference call services, mailers, etc.

21. One of the most important things we can do with all churches, organizations, volunteer groups, and others that are concerned about what to do in a pandemic is to train our people in simple nursing aid—how to care for the sick, keeping them clean, fed, as comfortable as possible and help them to survive. Do not count on, should you have the flu early, you becoming immune—this is expected to mutate quickly, it is possible a different mutation may hit you a second time.

For more on the Flu Pandemic, see the LSF Flu Pandemic page.
 

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